China has recently revised official estimates of coal consumption, which imply an increase of domestic coal consumption by 17 percent compared to previous official estimates. As reported in the New York Times today, this means an increase of China’s carbon emissions by 4 to 6 percent in 2011 and 2012 according to estimates by the International Energy Agency. Preliminary analysis by the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo even estimate this increase to reach 11 percent.
The Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project has recently submitted a revised analysis of national deep decarbonization pathways for China. This study was prepared by the Chinese DDPP Country Research Team in Tsinghua University and NCSC (a governmental climate think tank). This pathway already incorporates the revision of China’s coal use and demonstrates that, even with this revised estimate, deep decarbonization consistent with the internationally agreed limit of 2°C is possible in China if urgent action is taken soon by every major emitter of greenhouse gases.
The China DDP and the executive summary of the 2015 DDPP synthesis report are available on www.deepdecarbonization.org. The full 2015 DDPP report will be released prior to the COP21 at the end of this month.